Texas State Rep. Dennis Paul Enters Race for Middleton’s Senate Seat, Backed by Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick: What’s Next for SD-11?
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AUSTIN, TX — In a move that underscores the shifting dynamics of Texas politics, State Rep. Dennis Paul (R-Houston) announced Thursday his campaign for Senate District 11, the seat being vacated by Republican state Sen. Mayes Middleton. Middleton, a prominent conservative, is forgoing reelection to pursue the Texas Attorney General’s office, setting off a chain reaction that could reshape the state’s political landscape.
The Domino Effect: From Cornyn to Paxton to Middleton to Paul
The race for SD-11 is part of a broader political realignment triggered by Attorney General Ken Paxton’s decision to challenge U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the 2024 GOP primary. Paxton’s departure from the AG’s office has opened the door for Middleton, who announced his own bid for attorney general earlier this year. Now, Paul’s entry into the Senate race leaves his reliably Republican House District 129 up for grabs, ensuring a competitive election cycle in southeast Texas.
Paul, a 64-year-old engineer and six-term House member, emphasized his conservative credentials in his announcement. “I will faithfully represent the values that make Texas the greatest state to live, work, and raise a family: faith in God, love for family, and liberty,” he said. His campaign is expected to focus on core GOP priorities, including border security, property tax relief, and energy independence—key issues in a district spanning Galveston, eastern Harris County, and parts of the Houston suburbs.
Dan Patrick’s Stamp of Approval: A Game-Changer
Within hours of Paul’s announcement, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick—the Senate’s influential presiding officer—endorsed his candidacy. Patrick’s early backing is a strategic move, signaling to donors and potential rivals that Paul is the establishment’s preferred candidate.
“Dennis Paul has everything needed to be a Texas Senator,” Patrick said, praising his “stalwart conservative record” and legislative experience. Patrick’s endorsement carries significant weight; he has a history of shaping the Senate’s ideological makeup by supporting allies who align with his priorities, such as school vouchers and restrictive abortion laws.
Who Is Dennis Paul? A Look at His Record
Since his election to the House in 2015, Paul has positioned himself as a mainstream Republican, avoiding the far-right fringe while consistently supporting party-line policies. Key aspects of his tenure include:
- Committee Leadership: As vice chair of the Transportation Funding Subcommittee and a longtime member of the House Insurance Committee, Paul has shaped policies on infrastructure and healthcare.
- Voting Record: He backed Texas’ controversial abortion ban (SB 8), permitless carry legislation, and the 2021 election integrity bill. However, he has occasionally broken with hardliners, such as opposing efforts to punish businesses that mandated COVID-19 vaccines.
- District Overlap: Nearly all of Paul’s HD-129 lies within Middleton’s SD-11, giving him a geographic advantage in the Senate race.
The Road Ahead: Predictions and Potential Challenges
Paul’s early entry and Patrick’s endorsement make him the frontrunner, but the race is far from settled. Here’s what to watch:
- Primary Competition: While no other candidates have declared yet, rivals could emerge from the right flank of the GOP, particularly if they argue Paul isn’t sufficiently conservative.
- Open House Seat: HD-129, which Paul is vacating, is a Republican stronghold but could attract moderate candidates aiming to pivot the district’s focus to local issues like flood control and education.
- General Election Dynamics: SD-11 is solidly red, but Democrats may target it if infighting fractures GOP unity.
Why This Race Matters Beyond Southeast Texas
The SD-11 contest is a microcosm of Texas’ evolving political identity. With Paxton and Cornyn locked in a high-stakes Senate primary, Middleton’s AG bid, and Paul’s Senate run, the outcomes could influence the state’s policy direction for years. A Paul victory would further solidify Patrick’s grip on the Senate, while a surprise challenger could signal grassroots discontent with the status quo.
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